Claflin Poll - 2024 Elections

Claflin Poll – 2024 Elections

The Claflin poll, conducted by the Public Opinion and Social Behavior Research Institute (POSBRI) in October 2024, gathered responses from over 1,000 South Carolina residents to gauge voter preferences and priorities before the November 2024 elections. Below are the key findings from this important study.

Key Findings:

1. Presidential Race Overview

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The poll shows a more competitive presidential race in South Carolina, with former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 7.01%. The breakdown of “likely voter” support is as follows:
- Donald Trump: 49.94%
- Kamala Harris: 42.84%
- Undecided: 4.77%
Although Trump holds a comfortable lead, the race is much tighter than in previous elections, indicating South Carolina could witness a more competitive contest than usual.
2. Voter Turnout Expectations

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Voter engagement appears high:
- Definitely voting: 69.85%
- Probably voting: 11.44%
With over 80% of respondents planning to vote, South Carolina is set for a strong turnout, which may significantly impact the final results.
3. Top Issues Driving the Vote

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When asked to identify the most important issue influencing their vote, respondents cited:
- Economy and Jobs: 51.54%
- Immigration: 12.44%
- Healthcare: 11.04%
- National Security: 7.26%
- Climate Change: 3.78%
The economy overwhelmingly dominates voter concerns, with jobs and economic stability as the top priority for over half of the electorate.
4. Satisfaction with National and State Direction

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- Satisfaction with National Direction:
  - Very dissatisfied: 39.30%
  - Very satisfied: 6.37%
- Satisfaction with South Carolina's Direction:
  - Somewhat satisfied: 27.06%
  - Very satisfied: 8.56%
South Carolinians are more satisfied with the direction of their state than the nation, although dissatisfaction remains high.
5. Media Consumption and Trust

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- Top news sources:
  - Television: 43.68%
  - Online News: 24.48%
  - Social Media: 20.90%
- Trust in media sources:
  - Completely trust: 14.53%
  - Somewhat trust: 43.98%
Trust in the media remains moderate, with only a small percentage of voters fully trusting their primary news sources.

Methodology

Conclusion:

The 2024 Claflin Poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a comfortable advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race. Although the race is tighter than in previous elections, Trump maintains a solid lead, driven largely by voter concerns about the economy and jobs. The data suggests that while South Carolinians are leaning toward Trump, undecided voters and high voter turnout could still play a significant role in shaping the final results. Both candidates will need to address the state's key issues, particularly economic concerns, to solidify or challenge this advantage as the election approaches.

About the Poll

The 2024 South Carolina Election Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion and Social Behavior Research Institute (POSBRI) at Claflin University. The poll surveyed 1,005 South Carolina residents with a margin of error of +/- 3%. The survey aimed to provide insight into voter behavior, preferences, and key issues ahead of the November 2024 national elections.

For more information or to access the full report, please contact:

Dr. Kwadwo Poku-Agyemang
Public Opinion and Social Behavior Research Institute (POSBRI)
Claflin University
kpokuagyemang@claflin.edu
(803) 535 5078

For more information about POSBRI, our research, or potential collaborations, contact
Dr. Poku-Agyemang
kpokuagyemang@claflin.edu